Succession Concerns in Algeria

Roughly a year ago, Algeria had suffered pockets of protest surrounding the election of Abdullaziz Bouteflika to his fourth term as the president of the North African country. The protests, and the ailing health of the 78 year-old leader brought on discussion among political observers about the country’s ability to remain stable in the coming years. The decline in onshore petroleum reserves and in oil prices recently have aggravated the problem, leading some analysts to look into not only the potential for instability, but also the succession problem that looms over the political landscape.

Abdullaziz Bouteflika rose to power in 1999 at the end of the country’s civil war that began with the annulled election of Islamists to government in 1992.  Since then, Bouteflika has drawn upon income from oil and gas production to provide social services to the country and invest into infrastructure projects. At the same time, the security forces have come down hard on attempts to protest. 

In the capital city Algiers, a strong police presence is maintained to ensure stability, but outside the city remains a threat from groups associated with ISIS. In September 2014, militants kidnapped and beheaded French tourist Herve Gourdel to punish France for its actions against the Islamic State. In March 2015, 100 Turkish workers were evacuated from a roadway project east of Algiers due to a threat from militants associated with the Islamic state. In February, the US State Department issued a travel warning for its citizens about the Kabylie regions and the eastern wilayas, and the Saharan Desert regions of the south and southeast.

Such areas of insecurity make the concerns about Mr. Bouteflika’s health more significant. The lack of plans for succession could put the country in a position where a power vacuum is created, which could lead to violent clashes within the society. Some observers have noted that leaders of the Algerian government since the 1960s have been less elected by the public than selected by the security forces, which could decrease the succession issue. Moreover, the government is seeking to compensate for the loss of onshore reserves by seeking offshore wells to support the country’s economy.

Nonetheless, this situation is one that should be watched. Since the country has a long border with Libya and analysts have registered concern about the possibility of Libya’s becoming the next failed state, even a small loss of stability in Algeria could provide the opportunity militants need to expand their reach. 

The best way to ensure stability in the long term is to prepare now for the event of succession, in particular one that would ensure that the voice of the broader public can be heard.