Some pundits on news channels have claimed that the US
government was surprised by the attempted coup in Turkey.
Here are four reasons the attempted coup shouldn’t be a
surprise.
1. Erosion of Democracy
When Erdogan and the AK Party were first voted into power in
2002, there was a broad expectation that they would increase Turkey’s
democracy. They were a moderate Islamist group that claimed a dedication to
Turkey’s democratic principles. However, after several years in power they
began to silence opposition voices around the country, including jailing journalists,
and closing down non-governmental organizations and oppositional newspapers.
After his terms as Prime Minister ended, and he was elected
President, Erdogan also sought to change the country to a presidential system,
rather than the currently established parliamentary system. About the state of Turkey’s
democracy, Freedomhouse has said, “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had pursued an
aggressive, society-wide crackdown on dissent in response first to the Gezi
Park protests of June 2013 and then in response to the opening of corruption
cases implicating the government in December 2013.”
2. Instability Coming from Syria
Turkey has been hard hit by the war in Syria which happens
not only on the other side of the country’s border, but often across it. Turkey
has taken in roughly 2.5 million refugees from Syria, and has an on-going
battle with Kurdish forces closely tied to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party).
Turkey’s problems arising from the Syrian conflict have also manifested
themselves in numerous bombings in the country and an attack at Istanbul
International Airport.
Such instability has eroded the feeling that Erdogan is in
control of what happens in Turkey, but has also caused him to be more reliant
upon the Turkish military—a reliance that has manifested itself in Erdogan’s
empowering the military and issuing immunity from prosecution for military
actions taken inside the country. The empowering of the military in this way
could have led officers to make bolder moves such as attempting a coup.
3. There is precedent for military coups in
Turkey
Since Turkey’s constitution was established in 1924, Turkey
has had 3 coups d’etat. The 1960 coup occurred as a result of general acrimony
between the Turkish government and opposition, and a loosening of
anti-religious rules. In 1971 the military also intervened by forcing Prime
Minister Suleyman Demirel to step down and asked Nihat Erim to take over
temporarily. The instability continued through the 1970s, and in 1980 the
Turkish military took control of the government.
In 1997, in what experts have called a “postmodern coup” the
military forced Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan of the Islamist Welfare party
to step down and to roll back religious laws.
The role of the military as protectors of the secular
republic was written into the Turkish Armed Services Internal Service Code,
which states, “the duty of the armed forces is to protect and safeguard Turkish
territory and the Turkish Republic as stipulated by the Constitution.”
4. The Turkish Military Has an Ax to Grind
against President Erdogan
The ruling AK Party has diminished the role of the military
in politics since coming to power, partly as a requirement of the European
Union accession process. The acceptance of Turkey as a candidate country in
1999 meant that Turkey would need to democratize the relationship between the
military and the public. The AK Party began the process when it came to power
in 2002.
Further problems between the military and Erdogan’s
government stem from the Turkish government’s recent arrest of military
officers for plans to over throw the government in 2010. Most recently, in August 2013, General Ilker Basbug was sentenced to life for his efforts to plot a
coup (to be exonerated in 2014).
Outcomes
We will see how this turns out, but one thing it is not is
surprising.
